A devastating new front has emerged in Sudan's relentless civil war, with drone strikes causing widespread civilian casualties and reshaping the conflict's trajectory.
The Pivotal Battle for Kordofan
In the heart of Sudan, the south-central Kordofan region has become the epicentre of fighting, a strategic area brimming with gold and oil reserves. This shift in the conflict's focus comes as both sides consolidate their gains in other key battlefields, making Kordofan the pivotal new front line.
A Deadliest Conflict for Civilians
The war between the Sudanese regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has proven to be one of Africa's deadliest for civilians, with no signs of abating despite international peace efforts led by the United States. Near-daily drone strikes have targeted markets, health facilities, aid convoys, and residential areas across Kordofan, sparking outrage from the United Nations and humanitarian officials.
Calls for Ceasefire and Protection
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk emphasized the urgency of the situation, calling for an end to attacks on civilian targets and urging both parties to take measures to protect civilians. His statement came in response to reports of over 50 civilians killed in separate drone strikes in North and West Kordofan over just two days.
Blame and Accusations
While local reports and war monitors blame the Sudanese military for these attacks, both sides stand accused of deadly strikes on civilians and civilian infrastructure. Greater Kordofan, comprising three states, serves as a vital link between the western Darfur region, controlled by the RSF, and the capital, Khartoum, in the eastern Nile Valley, now under army control.
The Spark of War
The war erupted in April 2023, ignited by a power struggle between the leaders of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitaries. It intensified in Kordofan, a strategic area rich in resources, once the SAF regained control of Khartoum last year. The south-central region became the main battlefield after the RSF consolidated its hold on Darfur by capturing the city of el-Fasher in October.
The Strategic Importance of Kordofan
Securing territorial control over the Kordofan states would position the RSF to reclaim Sudan's central corridor and anchor its rival administration in western Sudan. Acled, an independent global conflict monitor, highlights this strategic advantage.
The RSF's Parallel Government
The RSF established a parallel government last year, solidifying the de facto division of the country. It did so in alliance with the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement-Army North (SPLM-N), which has its base in South Kordofan, providing access to experienced fighters, territory, and border areas. The SPLM-N has been fighting against the central government and armed forces for decades, aiming to end the political and economic marginalization of Sudan's Nuba and Blue Nile regions.
Strategic Gains and Blockade Breaks
In recent weeks, it has been the SAF that has made strategic gains, breaking a blockade imposed on South Kordofan's two main cities, Kadugli and Dilling, by the RSF and its SPLM-N allies. UN-backed food monitors had reported that the two-year sieges had created famine conditions. Since the takeover of these cities, the SAF has escalated bombardments of RSF positions, including their aerial weapons.
The Drone Arms Race
Both the paramilitaries and the Sudanese military have turned to drones as a key weapon in the conflict. The RSF is widely reported to use Chinese long-range CH-95 drones supplied by the United Arab Emirates, a claim the UAE denies. Sudan's military sources its drones from Baykar, Turkey's largest defense contractor, with advanced Akinci combat models believed to have been supplied over the last year. The Turkish government maintains it does not provide direct support to the SAF.
Destruction of RSF Drones and Missiles
In early February, the Sudanese army announced the destruction of RSF drones and anti-aircraft missiles in the Kordofan and Darfur regions, as part of a strategy to dismantle the RSF's non-conventional aerial capabilities. The BBC was unable to verify the footage published by Sudan's state news agency, but Turkish media outlets reported that an Akinci drone destroyed a Chinese-made FK-2000 air defense system in Sudan on February 10th.
The Role of Egypt and Turkey
The army's advance appears to have been aided by disruptions in the RSF's supply lines from Libya into the Kordofan region, reportedly targeted by Turkish drones launched from an Egyptian airstrip near the Sudanese border. Investigations by the New York Times and Reuters have revealed Egypt's increasing involvement in the war over the past six months, alarmed by RSF advances in Darfur.
Widening the Conflict
Recent attacks led by the SPLM-N in Blue Nile State, southeast of the Kordofans, threaten to expand Sudan's war into a regional conflict. The Sudanese army has accused both Ethiopia and South Sudan of allowing the RSF to launch attacks from their territories, accusations that Addis Ababa, Juba, and the UAE have denied. Analysts believe the RSF and its SPLM-N allies are attempting to open a new front in the Blue Nile region, partly to alleviate pressure in the Kordofans.
A Hopeful Truce, a Devastating Reality
Despite US envoy Massad Boulos' hopes for a truce agreement by Ramadan, which began on February 18th, a drone strike blamed on the Sudanese military struck families gathering at a water collection point in West Kordofan on the first day of the Muslim holy month. Young children were among the casualties, a tragic reminder of the human cost of this relentless conflict.
And this is the part most people miss: while the world focuses on the high-profile peace efforts, the reality on the ground is a complex web of strategic gains, arms races, and regional tensions that threaten to escalate the conflict further. The question remains: can a lasting peace be achieved, or will this new front line continue to fuel the flames of war in Sudan?
