Is America's Influence in Antarctica at Risk? The Growing Concern Over China's Expansion and the US's Retreat
The world is watching as Donald Trump's administration battles for control of Greenland, but what about the other end of the Earth? As the US grapples with its changing presence in the Arctic, there's a growing concern that it might be losing its grip on Antarctica as well, potentially leaving it open for rivals like China.
The US's influence in Antarctica appears to be waning, not by design but by accident. Proposed cuts to climate-related research, which significantly impacts the rapidly melting Antarctic, are causing alarm. According to Prof. Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado and a veteran of US Antarctic research, these cuts are "catastrophic."
The implications of reduced science funding in Antarctica are far-reaching. Research has long been a way for nations to maintain their influence on the continent. The 1959 Antarctic Treaty, which prohibits military or commercial activities, has allowed countries to establish a scientific presence through research stations and the necessary equipment, such as icebreakers and aircraft.
The UK, for instance, has research bases at Rothera and Halley VI, strategically located at the boundaries of its wedge-shaped claim to the continent. Prof. Dame Jane Francis, director of the British Antarctic Survey, emphasizes the dual purpose of the scientific presence: contributing to the treaty through world-class science and maintaining a UK presence in Antarctica.
The UK's commitment is exemplified by the £200 million research icebreaker named after Sir David Attenborough, which serves as a floating laboratory and re-supply vessel for British bases. However, the US is now in a peculiar position, having to lease an icebreaker owned by Ukraine to maintain its operations this year, a situation that hasn't gone unnoticed.
This shift in the balance of power has sparked a potential opportunity for the UK to forge new research partnerships. But it's not just the UK that's taking notice. China, too, has been rapidly expanding its presence in Antarctica.
China's Antarctic research agency, CHINARE, now operates five bases on the continent and opened a new year-round facility last year. Beijing recently announced plans for another. In 2024, China commissioned a new icebreaker, joining its predecessor in operations around Antarctica this year.
China, like other signatories to the Antarctic Treaty, conducts research, sometimes in partnership with other states. However, there are signs that China and Russia may have interests beyond the treaty's scope. China has resisted efforts to increase protection for fisheries in the Southern Ocean, and Russia announced the discovery of a massive oil reserve near Antarctica in 2020, though it has not yet moved to exploit it.
Prof. Scambos highlights the dual nature of countries' involvement in the Antarctic Treaty: scientific research and the potential for future exploitation. While no country has formally withdrawn or modified the treaty, the changing dynamics in the region raise questions about the long-term preservation of Antarctica's pristine state.
The distance from major powers and the continent's inaccessibility, coupled with its year-round sea ice and six months of darkness, have historically contributed to the neglect of its natural resources. However, like the Arctic, Antarctica is warming and its ice sheets are melting. With the Trump administration's ambiguous stance on territorial conventions, the future of Antarctica's unspoiled nature remains uncertain.
